Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Take That, Dad

Dad and I have been having a running argument for several years.  Every time a planting intentions or crop production report comes out and riles the markets, Dad claims the government ought to quit making forecasts and leave things up to the private operators to handle.  I point out to him that if the markets are so smart, they ought to know what the actual conditions are and would ignore the supposedly way out of line government reports.  I also mention that the Cargills and ADMs of the world might actually talk their book to move the market the way they want and really fuck us over.  But with the government shutdown, we get this from, of all places, The Wall Street Journal (a news source Dad reads):
Under a shutdown, the U.S. Department of Agriculture plans to furlough employees responsible for some daily and weekly statistical reports on agriculture that are closely watched by traders and investors. Any delays of such reports–which include everything from daily wholesale pork prices to weekly figures on chicken-egg supplies–could affect commodity and equity investors who rely on the information.
A shutdown “certainly would make things more difficult for investors,” said Brett Hundley, an agribusiness analyst with BB&T Capital Markets in Richmond, Va. “The USDA presents some of the best data in the world for any industry (emphasis mine), and it can lead to good decision-making by investors.”
Mr. Hundley said big agriculture companies such as Tyson Foods Inc.TSN +0.78% and Monsanto Co.MON +1.06% likely would face little impact from a shutdown, however, in part because they have considerable data of their own at their fingertips. He also said he doesn’t expect any shift in strategies at the companies due to a shutdown in Washington. “For operations of companies in the industry, it would be business as usual,” he said.
Yeah, Dad, I'm sure all us little guys would be much better off if the government just stayed out of our way.

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